Land subsidence, often caused by unsustainable ground water extraction and drainage, has been shown to increase coastal flood risks at a rate four times faster than sea level rise 7.įlood risks are also driven by socioeconomic change, as the number of people, assets, and value of economic activities increase over time 3. Even in an optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6), sea levels are estimated to rise up to 0.55 m by 2100, putting especially large coastal cities at risk 6. For a high-concentration climate change scenario, estimates from 11 climate models converge to the conclusion that flood frequencies in Southeast Asia, East and Central Africa, and large parts of Latin America could increase substantially by 2100 5. While the threat is already substantial, several ongoing trends could result in significant increases in flood risks in coming years. Understanding the scale and distribution of risks is crucial for devising targeted mitigation measures and allocating adequate resources. Rare, major floods and smaller, frequent events alike can revert years of progress in development 4 and poverty reduction. Recent disastrous floods in countries as diverse as Nigeria, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the United States, and the United Kingdom illustrate that the threat is a global reality. Especially in lower-income countries-where infrastructure systems, including drainage and flood protection, tend to be less developed-floods often cause unmitigated damage and suffering 3. While each country faces its individual set of natural hazards, including cyclones, earthquakes, or wildfires, floods are among the leading threats to people’s livelihoods and affect development prospects worldwide 2. Globally, natural shocks are estimated to cause an average of over $300 billion in direct asset losses every year this estimate increases to $520 billion when considering well-being (or consumption) losses 1.
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